Despite its relative stability, the British Pound has been undergoing a turbulent period of time. The Great Financial Crisis saw investors flee the GBP in droves. Meanwhile, US dollar strength was hammering currencies around the world, particularly the euro. However, the GBP has managed to recover from its recent plunge and is now trading at levels last seen almost three months ago.
The latest GBP/USD exchange rate is still under a range of influences this week. Although inflation is expected to rise in the UK in November, this may not be enough to sustain a recovery. Speculative sellers could be driving the downward move in the pound. This could lead to a disorderly run on GBP.
However, some analysts say that the GBP is set for a significant improvement by the end of the year, and could even reach parity with the dollar by the end of 2022. The Bank of England’s latest meeting was expected to announce a statement on currency moves, but that did not happen.
The UK government’s decision to jettison Truss tax cuts halted the pound’s fall. This was followed by speculation that the Bank of England would raise interest rates ahead of the European Central Bank. However, this speculation was met with little relief in the markets.
Another factor weighing on the GBP is the recent uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union. While the UK economy is still strong, it is expected to slow over the next year. This could lead to the UK jobs market changing and the government having to increase taxes. As a result, global investors rejected the latest UK government borrowing plans. Consequently, debt markets are in turmoil.
Despite the recent turmoil, the British pound remains stronger than the dollar in nominal terms. This is partly due to historical convention and the Bank of England’s willingness to intervene in times of crisis. This week, the pound broke through its resistance at 1.1355, and bounced off support at 1.1220. It now appears to be stabilizing at around 1.1450.
However, the market speculator may test the pound’s parity with the dollar. This may prove to be the case, as the US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to battle inflation. The Bank of England will also need to do a good job of restoring its fiscal credibility.
Another factor that may influence the GBP/USD exchange rate this week is the economic data that is expected to be released. These include retail sales, inflation, and employment figures. The UK’s headline inflation is expected to drop sharply in the coming year. This may lead to a decline in the GBP/USD. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for November 3.
The British pound is an interesting currency to watch. It is currently under a range of influences this week, and may reach parity with the dollar by the endof the year. However, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the UK’s exit from the European union